A guide to understanding heat stress, protecting your family, and adapting to a warming Kenya

Heat stress is reshaping health, work, livelihoods, and food systems. Every season brings dangerous heat that threatens outdoor workers, vulnerable populations, and Kenya's future.

This guide explains what extreme heat does to the body, who is most at risk, what to watch for, and what practical steps any Kenyan can take.

What is ICPAC's Weekly Heat Stress Forecast?

ICPAC (Intergovernmental Authority on Development: Clima Prediction and Applications Centre), based in Nairobi, publishes a free weekly heat stress forecast every Monday at icpac.net/weekly-forecast.

The forecast uses a colour-coded map showing which Kenyan counties face heat stress risk in the coming week:

• Green = Safe. Normal heat levels.

• Yellow = Caution. Elevated heat stress. Take precautions.

• Orange = High risk. Heat stress poses significant danger. Adjust routines.

• Red = Extreme risk. Dangerous heat stress conditions. Avoid outdoor work if possible.

How to use the forecast

1. Every Monday, visit icpac.net/weekly-forecast and look for your county.

2. Check the colour next to your county name.

3. On yellow or red days, adjust your work schedule, increase water intake, and monitor vulnerable people (children, elderly, pregnant women).

4. Share the forecast with your workplace, school, and community.

Current forecast (26 November to 03 December 2025): Elevated heat stress is expected in eastern and coastal parts of Kenya. Moderate to high temperatures (20 to 32°C) are forecast for eastern and northern counties.

What is happening to Kenya's climate?

Kenya is warming. Over the past three decades, temperatures have risen, dry seasons have grown longer, and extreme heat events now last several days at a stretch rather than a few hours.

In northern counties: Turkana, Wajir, Garissa, Mandera and Samburu: average daily maximum temperatures now regularly exceed 38°C. Scientists flag these as dangerous for outdoor work, livestock, and crops. Even in central highlands like Nyeri and Eldoret, nights are no longer as cool as they used to be, making recovery from daytime heat harder.

Heat stress is the body's struggle to stay cool when the environment is too hot. It triggers physical collapse, dehydration, organ damage, and death if not addressed.

How heat harms the body and what to watch for

The human body works best when its core temperature stays around 37°C. When external heat or hard work pushes this higher, the body sweats to cool down. This system fails when the air is hot, humidity is high, or the body cannot access enough water and shade.

Heat exhaustion: The warning stage

This happens first. The body is struggling to cool itself but still functioning.

Signs to watch for:

• Heavy, continuous sweating with cool or clammy skin

• Muscle cramps, especially in the legs

• Fast but weak pulse

• Dizziness, lightheadedness, or confusion

• Nausea or headache

• Weakness or fatigue out of proportion to the activity

What to do:

• Move the person to shade immediately

• Loosen or remove heavy clothing

• Give small, frequent sips of cool water (not ice cold)

• Apply cool, wet towels to the skin or use a fan

• Lie down with legs slightly elevated

• If symptoms do not improve within 30 minutes, seek medical help

Heat exhaustion is reversible. A few minutes of shade, water, and cooling usually brings full recovery.

Heat stroke: The emergency

If heat exhaustion is not treated, the body's cooling system fails entirely. Core temperature climbs above 40°C and organ damage begins.

Warning signs: act immediately

• Skin becomes hot and dry (sweating stops completely)

• Severe confusion, disorientation, or slurred speech

• Loss of consciousness or fainting

• Rapid, strong pulse that slows over time

• Seizures

• Aggression or bizarre behaviour

• High fever without chills

What to do: this is an emergency

• Call for emergency medical help immediately (ambulance or nearest hospital)

• Move the person to the coolest available place

• Remove excess clothing

• Cool the body by any available means: wet towels, fans, immersion in cool (not cold) water if safe, or cold compresses to neck, armpits and groin where major blood vessels are close to the skin

• Do not give fluids by mouth if the person is confused or unconscious

• Continue cooling until body temperature comes down or emergency help arrives

Heat stroke causes permanent organ damage within minutes. Delay in cooling can mean death or lifelong disability.

The key difference: Heat exhaustion = person sweats, skin is cool and clammy. Heat stroke = person stops sweating, skin is hot and dry, mental state changes.

Who faces the highest risk in Kenya

Heat does not affect everyone equally. Six groups face the highest danger during heat stress events.

Older adults

As people age, the body's ability to sense temperature and regulate cooling weakens. Many older Kenyans also take medications that interfere with sweating or circulation. In severe heat, even a healthy older person can collapse quickly.

During recent heatwaves in Nairobi and Mombasa, hospitals reported that admissions for heat related illness among people over 60 were 3 to 5 times higher than in younger age groups.

Young children

Infants and children under five have smaller bodies and higher surface area relative to their mass, so they heat up faster and lose fluids more rapidly. A child left in a car for even 10 minutes on a hot day can suffer heat exhaustion or stroke. Children also depend entirely on adults to recognise symptoms and take action.

Pregnant women

Pregnancy changes how the body handles heat. Emerging research links maternal heat exposure to pregnancy complications, low birth weight, and higher risks for newborns. In rural Kenya, pregnant women who also walk long distances to collect water, carry heavy loads, or work in fields face compounded risks.

People with chronic diseases

Heart disease, diabetes, kidney problems, and lung conditions all make it harder for the body to cope with heat. Many medications worsen the risk by reducing sweating, altering blood pressure, or increasing dehydration. Kenya's rising burden of non communicable diseases means hundreds of thousands of Kenyans now live with conditions that make heat more dangerous.

Outdoor and manual workers

Construction crews, road workers, farmers, herders, market vendors, matatu touts, and boda boda riders spend hours in direct sun with limited access to shade or rest. Across Africa, heat stress could destroy the equivalent of millions of full time jobs and cost economies billions in lost productivity.

In Kenya, outdoor workers in agriculture, construction, transport, and informal trade face increasing risks as temperatures climb, especially in arid and semi arid counties and in densely built urban areas like Nairobi, Mombasa, and Kisumu. A construction labourer or farm worker cannot simply "stay inside" during the hottest hours; survival often depends on continuing work despite the risk.

Residents of informal settlements

In dense informal settlements across Nairobi, Mombasa, Kisumu, and other Kenyan cities, housing made of corrugated iron, cardboard, and plastic creates conditions where indoor temperatures stay dangerously high both day and night. Limited trees, poor ventilation, and no electricity for fans mean the body never gets a chance to cool down. Chronic heat stress builds over weeks, weakening immunity and raising the risk of heat illness.

What you can do

1. Learn the signs of heat stress

Know the difference between heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Teach your family, neighbours, and workmates. Print a card or save a photo on your phone showing the warning signs and first aid steps.

2. Check ICPAC's weekly heat stress forecast every Monday

Visit icpac.net/weekly-forecast every Monday morning. Look for your county and note the colour:

• Yellow or orange? Adjust your routine. Shift outdoor work to before 10 a.m. or after 4 p.m. Increase water intake.

• Red? Heat stress is extreme. Avoid outdoor work if possible. Keep vulnerable people indoors in shade.

Bookmark the page. Share the forecast with your workplace and community.

3. Adjust your day on yellow, orange, or red heat stress days

• Work: Shift outdoor work to before 10 a.m. or after 4 p.m. Take at least one rest break per hour in shade with water.

• Schools: Move sports and outdoor classes to early morning or late afternoon. Ensure water is available throughout the day.

• Home: Open windows early morning and late evening to cool the house. Close curtains during the day to block direct sun. Drink water regularly even before feeling thirsty.

• Driving: Never leave children, elderly people, or animals in parked vehicles. Temperatures inside a car can reach 60°C in minutes.

4. Protect the most vulnerable during heat stress events

• Older adults, children under five, pregnant women, and people with chronic diseases need extra attention on yellow, orange, or red days.

• Visit or call older relatives and neighbours to check they are drinking water and resting in shade.

• Keep clinics and schools stocked with oral rehydration salts and extra water on forecasted high heat stress days.

• For workers: Ensure shade structures, frequent water breaks, and rest periods are available during heat stress alerts.

5. Support climate smart farming

If you are a farmer or know farmers, ask about heat tolerant seeds. KALRO and county extension offices can provide information on varieties suited to your zone. Heat tolerant crops perform better during heat stress periods.

6. Protect Kenya's coastal reefs

If you live or work in coastal areas, reduce plastic use and support actions to protect mangrove forests and reduce overfishing. Reefs are also stressed by heat.

Food, farming, and heat stress

Heat stress is hitting Kenya's food security from two sides: fields and livestock.

Crops: When temperatures exceed 35°C, maize and beans struggle during flowering. Heat stress can wipe out entire harvests. Breeding programs produce climate smart seeds that survive days above 35°C. CGIAR's research now supports Kenyan farmers with heat tolerant varieties.

Livestock: Dairy cows, goats, pigs, and poultry all suffer heat stress. Milk yields drop above 30°C. ILRI in Nairobi has developed breeds that stay productive during heat stress, offering hope for herders in arid counties. Shade structures, water at dawn and dusk, and low stress herding can cut livestock losses during heat waves.

Key takeaways for every Kenyan

• Check ICPAC's weekly heat stress forecast every Monday at icpac.net/weekly-forecast

• Learn the signs of heat exhaustion (sweating, cool skin) versus heat stroke (confusion, dry hot skin).

• On yellow or red heat stress days: Shift work to cooler hours, increase water intake, monitor vulnerable people.

• Shift outdoor work and school activities to early morning or late afternoon during heat stress alerts.

• Keep water and shade available for children, older adults, and pregnant women.

• Support heat tolerant seeds if you farm.

• Share heat safety knowledge in your community: education saves lives.

Resources

• ICPAC Weekly Heat Stress Forecast: icpac.net/weekly-forecast (Updated every Monday)

• Kenya Meteorological Department: Contact your county office or follow local weather alerts

• ILRI Heat Tolerant Livestock: Research in Nairobi on climate adapted cattle

• CGIAR Climate Smart Seeds: Heat tolerant crop varieties available through KALRO

• KALRO County Extension Services: Contact your county's agricultural office for heat stress adaptation support

In Summary

Extreme heat stress affects every Kenyan: from health to farming to livelihoods. It is happening now, in your county, in your neighbourhood.

The good news is that most deaths and illnesses from heat stress are preventable with knowledge, planning, and community action. Checking the weekly forecast, shifting work hours, ensuring vulnerable people have water and shade, and supporting heat tolerant farming are all within reach of any Kenyan household or community.

Heat stress will continue to rise. But with the right information and preparation, Kenyans can protect themselves, adapt their farms and livelihoods, and keep our families safe.

This article is part of the Climate Resilience for All Extreme Heat Reporting Fellowship, a three day in person training in Nairobi, Kenya, January 26 to 28, 2026, designed to equip journalists across East Africa with the skills, sources, and story angles to report on extreme heat impacts.