Kenya Poll 2025: 32% Undecided, Economic Uncertainty Grips Nation

Poll Overview: 1,000 Kenyans Surveyed on National Direction and Economic Confidence

Infotrak Research & Consulting released its End-of-Year Poll on 19-20 December 2025, surveying 1,000 adult Kenyans across eight regions with a margin of error of ±3.1%. The findings reveal a country caught between recovery and uncertainty, where sentiment has improved dramatically from its October 2024 low, yet public confidence remains conditional, fragile, and concentrated in a large group waiting for proof that change is real.

One-Third of Kenyans Refuse to Commit: The 32% Undecided Group That Will Determine 2026

When 21% of Kenyans say the country is headed in the right direction while 42% say it's headed wrong, the story appears straightforward: pessimism still dominates. But the real revelation is the third category: those who say "neither right nor wrong." This group represents 32%, nearly one in three adults who are watching, waiting, and withholding judgment.

This is not indifference. It's watchfulness.

The same conditional mood appears in how Kenyans approach the festive season. A majority (55%) say they won't celebrate as they have in the past, and when asked why, 78% cite a single reason: lack of money. For women, that figure rises to 81%. For those aged 46-55 (the peak household responsibility years), it hits 86%. These are not marginal groups. They are the backbone of households, the providers, the decision-makers whose economic stress signals a deeper national fragility.

These two data points (the national mood and the festive mood) are not separate stories. They are the same story told through different lenses. When households cannot afford to participate in cultural moments built around family and faith, it signals economic strain that no macroeconomic statistic can capture. When a third of the population refuses to declare whether the country is improving or declining, it signals trust that has been tested, not yet restored.

The traditional policy response treats this as a communications challenge. Better messaging. Clearer narratives. More visible leaders explaining progress. But when two-thirds cite high cost of living as their reason for pessimism, and three-quarters of non-celebrators say they simply cannot afford a cultural moment built around family and faith, the problem is not how progress is explained. It's whether progress is felt.

October 2024 to December 2025: Sentiment Recovery Shows Relief Without Trust

Between October 2024 and December 2025, Kenya experienced one of the most dramatic sentiment shifts Infotrak has recorded in nearly two decades of polling. "Wrong direction" fell from 73% to 42%, a massive 31-point drop.

But look closer. "Right direction" rose only from 11% to 21%, a modest 10-point gain. The remaining shift (more than half of the improvement) went into uncertainty. The "neither right nor wrong" category jumped from 15% to 32%, a 17-point increase.

The public moved from crisis to caution, not crisis to confidence.

This pattern reveals the nature of relief-based recovery. When acute crises ease (when protests stop, when rhetoric softens, when daily tension decreases), people feel less alarmed. But relief is not the same as trust. Moving from "things are terrible" to "I'm not sure" is progress, but it's incomplete. The public is no longer mobilized against the status quo, but they're not yet mobilized in support of it either.

The reasons cited for optimism among the 21% who feel positive show what has worked: peace in the country (22%), effective devolution (29%), government performance (24%), and visible infrastructure (23%). These are delivery signals, things people can see, experience, and verify in their daily lives.

But the reasons for pessimism show what remains unresolved: high cost of living dominates at 67%, followed by unemployment (33%), poor governance (27%), education challenges (26%), and stalled projects (25%). These are not perception problems. They are structural challenges that require sustained delivery, not just stabilization.

The lesson is that recovery is possible. Sentiment can shift quickly when conditions change. But consolidation is not guaranteed. The large undecided group is not neutral. They are conditionally supportive, actively observing, and withholding final judgment until they see whether improvement is real or temporary.

Regional Analysis: Central Kenya Pessimism at 65% While North Eastern Shows 42% Optimism

National averages obscure as much as they reveal. Behind the headline numbers lies a country with wildly different regional realities, each telling its own story about trust, delivery, and expectation.

Central Kenya: Deepest Regional Pessimism Signals Promise-Delivery Gap

Central Kenya shows the deepest pessimism: 65% say the country is headed in the wrong direction, the highest in the nation. Only 12% express optimism. This is not just a number. It's a crisis of confidence in a region historically pivotal to national politics and economics. It signals a gap between promises and visible outcomes, between rhetoric and lived experience.

North Eastern Region: Conditional Optimism With Highest Uncertainty Rate

North Eastern shows a different pattern. It has the highest optimism of any region, with 42% saying the country is headed in the right direction. Yet it also has the highest uncertainty, with 44% saying "neither right nor wrong." This suggests that early delivery has created conditional support, but not yet deep conviction. People see progress, but they're reserving judgment about whether it will last.

Nairobi Sentiment: Capital City Mirrors National Mood With 44% Uncertainty

Nairobi (the capital, the media center, the seat of national visibility) mirrors the national mood but with slightly higher uncertainty. Nearly half of Nairobi residents (44%) are in observation mode, exposed to both government messaging and daily inconvenience. They see announcements, but they also experience garbage delays, water shortages, traffic chaos, and permit backlogs. The gap between communication and experience creates skepticism.

Coast Region: 53% Wrong Direction Sentiment Shows Consolidated Pessimism

Coast shows 53% pessimism and only 19% uncertainty, indicating more consolidated negative sentiment and less undecided hesitation. The challenges there may be different from Central's, but the outcome is similar: a majority believes things are headed the wrong way.

These regional differences matter because they reveal where trust has been built, where it has been tested, and where it has collapsed. A national communication strategy that ignores these disparities will fail to address the specific concerns driving each region's mood.

Cost of Living Crisis: 67% of Pessimists Cite Economic Hardship as Top Concern

High cost of living is cited by 67% of those who believe the country is headed in the wrong direction. It is the single most dominant complaint, dwarfing every other concern. The trend shows it intensifying: it was 43% in October 2024, rose to 66% in August 2025, and now stands at 67% in December 2025.

But the challenge is not just the aggregate figure. It's who feels it most acutely. Women report higher financial stress than men (81% of women say they cannot afford festive celebrations, versus 76% of men). Those in their peak household responsibility years (ages 46-55, typically caring for children and supporting aging parents) report the highest inability to afford celebrations at 86%.

Cost is not just an economic metric. It's a trust barometer. Among the 21% who feel optimistic about the country's direction, only 16% cite "cost of living is affordable" as a reason for their optimism. This means even among optimists, affordability is not widely felt. If the perception of relief remains confined to a small minority in 2026, the majority's skepticism will harden.

Festive Season as Economic Stress Test: 78% Cannot Afford to Celebrate

The festive season itself serves as an annual stress test. Among the 45% who plan to celebrate, the preferred activities are low-cost and high-meaning: spending time with family (53%), attending church or prayers (31%), and being with friends (20%). These are not luxury choices. They are the rituals that hold communities together. Yet 55% cannot participate, and when asked why, 78% say lack of money.

When economic pressure prevents participation in meaning-making activities, social cohesion frays. The question for 2026 is whether household budgets experience relief or continued strain.

Unemployment and Livelihood Challenges: 44% Self-Employed, 26% Unemployed

Unemployment is cited by 33% as a wrong-direction driver, second only to cost of living. But the poll's demographic breakdown reveals the deeper challenge: only 9% of respondents are formally employed. Another 20% are casually employed. The largest single category (44%) is self-employed. And 26% are unemployed.

This is the structure of Kenya's economy. Nearly half the adult population is creating their own income opportunities, often in informal, precarious conditions. Yet many livelihood interventions are designed for formal job placement: skills training for positions that don't exist at scale, youth programs tied to corporate internships that serve hundreds when millions need pathways.

The disconnect is fundamental. If 44% are self-employed, the interventions that matter most are those that reduce barriers to business operation: faster permits, accessible procurement, reliable infrastructure, enforceable contracts, and payment discipline from both public and private buyers.

Youth Sentiment 18-26 Years: Lowest Pessimism but Highest Uncertainty

The youth data adds nuance. The 18-26 age bracket shows the lowest pessimism of any age group (38%, versus the national 42%). But they also show the highest uncertainty at 12% "don't know" (versus 4% nationally). This is not disengagement. It's conditional openness. Younger Kenyans are less anchored to past grievances and more willing to judge based on what they see now. But they're also less certain about what's coming, less confident in promises, and more skeptical of rhetoric without results.

They are the most persuadable cohort, but their openness has a time limit. If opportunities materialize (not just get announced), they become advocates. If 2026 delivers more speeches without outcomes, their modest pessimism will harden into deeper skepticism.

Governance and Accountability: 27% Cite Poor Politics, 25% Point to Stalled Projects

Poor governance and politics is cited by 27% of pessimists, stalled development and infrastructure by 25%, corruption by 10%, human rights violations by 8%, and health sector failures by 12%. Together, these governance-related concerns rival cost of living in their cumulative weight.

Governance skepticism is not evenly distributed. Central Kenya's 65% "wrong direction" figure is tied to a perception that promises have not materialized, that projects visible in rhetoric are invisible in reality. North Eastern's relative optimism (42% right direction) coexists with the highest uncertainty (44% neither), suggesting that early wins have created conditional support but not yet deep trust.

What Drives Optimism: Devolution, Infrastructure, and Visible Progress

Among those who view the country positively, the top reasons include effective devolution (29%), government performance (24%), and visible infrastructure (23%). These are all delivery signals, not messaging victories. The public is not ideologically divided on whether governance works. They are empirically divided based on what they see in their communities.

The contrast is revealing. While 29% of optimists cite devolution as effective, 25% of pessimists cite stalled development. The difference is not perception. It's lived experience. In some regions, projects are completing. In others, they remain talking points.

The large undecided group is watching precisely this: whether announcements translate into completions, whether timelines hold, whether someone can be held responsible when they don't. This is not cynicism. It's pattern recognition based on past disappointment.

Gender Gap in Economic Stress: Women Report 81% Cannot Afford Festive Celebrations

Women report higher financial stress than men across multiple measures. Among non-celebrators, 81% of women cite inability to afford celebrations, versus 76% of men. Women are also more likely to prioritize church attendance during the festive season (37% versus 27% of men).

This is not incidental. Women are disproportionately responsible for household budget management, child-rearing costs, and extended family care. When they say they cannot afford to celebrate, it's not a personal preference. It's a household accounting reality. When they prioritize faith-based gatherings, it reflects both spiritual commitment and reliance on community networks for material support.

Policy Implications: Household Affordability Interventions Target Women's Concerns

The policy implication is that interventions targeting household affordability (school fees, healthcare costs, food prices, transport expenses) will be felt most immediately by women, who manage these budgets. Conversely, interventions that ignore household economics (high-level infrastructure that doesn't reduce daily friction, industrial policy that doesn't touch informal economies) will be perceived as irrelevant, regardless of their macroeconomic merit.

The generational pattern is equally revealing. Young people (ages 18-26) show the lowest pessimism (38%) but the highest uncertainty (12% "don't know"). They are less decided but also potentially more open to change if opportunities materialize. Middle-aged respondents (those in peak household responsibility years) show the highest financial stress and the most consolidated pessimism.

This is the cohort managing school fees, supporting aging parents, running small businesses, and absorbing economic shocks. Their pessimism is not ideological. It's empirical, based on daily experience of strain. If their conditions do not ease, their skepticism will deepen and spread.

Emerging Issues: Human Rights, Stalled Infrastructure, Health Sector Failures

Beyond cost, governance, livelihoods, and meaning, three additional concerns are gaining prominence in late 2025.

Human rights violations are now cited by 8% of pessimists. This was not a major driver in previous polls, but it has emerged as a visible concern. It signals that governance is being judged not just on delivery but also on how power is exercised.

Stalled development and infrastructure projects are cited by 25% of pessimists. This was mentioned far less frequently in earlier polls, but it has risen sharply. The implication is clear: across the country, there are visible projects that have stopped, and the public is noticing. Announcements without completions breed cynicism.

Health sector failures are cited by 12% of pessimists. Healthcare remains a sensitive barometer of whether governance works for ordinary people. When clinics lack supplies, when doctors are unavailable, when treatments are unaffordable, it undermines trust faster than roads or stadiums can rebuild it.

These emerging issues matter because they show where public attention is shifting. They are not yet dominant drivers, but they are rising. If they continue to intensify through 2026, they will compound the existing pressures from cost, unemployment, and governance skepticism.

Faith and Family: 53% Prioritize Family Time, 31% Church During Festive Season

Among the 45% who plan to celebrate the festive season, the activities they choose reveal what endures even when household budgets are strained: 53% will spend time with family, 31% will attend church or prayers, and 20% will spend time with friends. These are the social structures that hold even when economic pressure mounts.

The gender dimension is notable. Women are more likely than men to prioritize church attendance during the festive season (37% versus 27%). This is not incidental. Faith-based organizations often serve as social safety nets, mutual aid networks, and community anchors in ways that formal institutions do not.

Social Cohesion Under Economic Pressure: When Rituals Become Unaffordable

But meaning is constrained by affordability. The 78% of non-celebrators who cite lack of money are not rejecting the importance of family or faith. They're unable to participate in the rituals that express those values: traveling to see extended family, hosting meals, giving gifts, attending organized events. When economic pressure prevents participation in meaning-making activities, the social fabric weakens.

Family gatherings and faith gatherings are not luxuries. They are the rituals that renew trust, reinforce norms, and sustain community bonds. When households cannot afford them, the loss is not just cultural. It's social and psychological.

The festive season trend shows modest improvement. In 2024, 60% said they would not celebrate; in 2025, that fell to 55%. A 5-point shift in one year suggests that small changes in household conditions (slightly better income, slightly lower costs, slightly more stability) translate directly into social participation. The question for 2026 is whether that trajectory continues or stalls.

December 2025 Poll Demographics: 51% Male, 44% Self-Employed, 45% Secondary Education

The poll surveyed 1,000 Kenyans with specific demographic characteristics that provide context for the findings:

• Gender: 51% male, 49% female

• Age distribution: 11% aged 18-24, 36% aged 27-35, 31% aged 36-45, 14% aged 46-55, 8% over 55

• Religion: 53% Christian, 33% Catholic, 8% Muslim, 3% None, 3% other faiths

• Employment: 44% self-employed, 26% unemployed, 20% casually employed, 9% formally employed, 1% prefer not to answer

• Education: 45% secondary, 22% tertiary/college, 20% primary, 13% university/post-graduate, 2% none

This demographic profile shows a population dominated by informal economic participation, with nearly half creating their own livelihoods. The education levels indicate a literate, informed population capable of assessing governance performance based on lived experience rather than messaging alone.

2026 Outlook: Trust Consolidation Depends on Household-Level Progress

The December 2025 poll is not an endpoint. It's a baseline. The public has seen sentiment improve from the October 2024 low, but they're withholding final judgment. The 32% who say "neither right nor wrong" represent conditional supporters, residents who will determine whether Kenya's direction consolidates or reverses.

Their judgment will not be based on messaging. It will be based on whether household budgets feel relief or continued strain. Whether stalled projects get completed or remain symbols of broken promises. Whether the self-employed majority sees opportunities or just hears announcements. Whether families can afford to participate in the rituals that hold communities together.

Festive Season 2026: The Early Warning System for Economic Recovery

The festive season itself is the early warning system. If December 2026 shows the same pattern (most people unable to celebrate, most citing lack of money), it signals that recovery has not reached households. If celebration rates rise and affordability stress falls, it signals that improvement is real and spreading.

The central insight is that this undecided stance is not a problem to overcome with better communication. It's a rational response to incomplete recovery. The public is saying: we see some progress, but we need more proof. Show us cost relief. Show us completed projects. Show us income pathways. Show us that the institutions we trust (family, faith, community) are supported, not just referenced.

2026 will reveal whether that proof arrives, or whether the conditional supporters conclude it won't.

Key Takeaways for Policymakers and Stakeholders

• 32% undecided group is watching delivery, not messaging - This group refusing to commit will determine 2026 direction based on tangible progress

• 67% cite cost of living as top concern - Economic pressure dominates all other issues and intensified from 43% in October 2024

• Regional disparities demand localized strategies - Central Kenya's 65% pessimism versus North Eastern's 42% optimism shows one-size-fits-all approach will fail

• 44% self-employed need business enablement, not job training - Interventions must address informal economy realities

• Women bear disproportionate household stress - 81% of women cannot afford festive celebrations versus 76% of men

• Youth remain persuadable but time-limited - 18-26 age group shows lowest pessimism but highest uncertainty

• Festive season serves as annual economic stress test - 78% cite inability to afford celebrations signals household-level strain

• October to December recovery shows relief without trust - Sentiment improved but most shift went to uncertainty, not confidence

• Stalled projects breed visible cynicism - 25% cite incomplete development as pessimism driver, up sharply from earlier polls